Por César Caballero (Politólogo de la Universidad de los Andes, magister en Estudios Latinoamericanos de la Universidad de Oxford. Tomado de Razón Publica).
No hubo fraude
Después de la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales puede decirse que la democracia colombiana va por buen camino.
El 54,9 % del censo electoral votó (21 millones de personas); la participación más alta en una primera vuelta en este siglo. Más importante aún: se acabaros los gritos de fraude. Los resultados eran claros hacia las seis de la tarde y todos los candidatos los aceptaron.
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Por otra parte, el volumen de votos en blanco fue el más bajos de las últimas tres elecciones, y los votos nulos y no marcados disminuyeron.
Habrá cambio
Los resultados envían un mensaje de cambio. Petro, Rodolfo y Fajardo criticaron la administración de Iván Duque; entre los tres recibieron el 71,7 % de los votos. Esto muestra la valoración de los ciudadanos del gobierno actual y confirma uno de los elementos centrales de los sistemas democráticos: las transformaciones mediante elecciones son posibles.
De interés: Abren indagación al Nuevo Liberalismo
Sin lugar a dudas estos candidatos derrotaron a la más grande coalición de organizaciones políticas en Colombia. Los casi 80 senadores, las 54 castas políticas, el presidente, sus ministros, el comandante del Ejército, el fiscal general, el contralor, la procuradora y los recursos públicos no alcanzaron para acallar la voz de los ciudadanos que exigieron un cambio en las urnas.
Los cambios que con seguridad ocurrirán
Rodolfo Hernández y Gustavo Petro pasaron a segunda vuelta. Ahora los ciudadanos deben elegir entre dos propuestas de cambio.
Leer: Los mismos de siempre
Sus programas, sin embargo, tienen muchas coincidencias. Fescol, Cifras & Conceptos y El Espectador realizaron el Match Presidencial con treinta preguntas, cada una con seis opciones de respuesta. Los candidatos respondieron igual en nueve preguntas, en otras cinco su diferencia fue de apenas una escala y en otras seis de dos escalas. Únicamente en un tema contestaron de modo totalmente distinto. Esto significa que en veinte de treinta temas proponen básicamente lo mismo.
Sin importar el ganador, habrá ajustes importantes en varios temas de política. Ambos candidatos afirmaron durante sus campañas que:
- Modificarán las relaciones diplomáticas con Venezuela; es probable que en los próximos meses retomen, al menos, las relaciones consulares.
- Tendrían diálogos con el ELN.
- Apoyarán la legalización del consumo recreativo de marihuana.
- Están de acuerdo con la sentencia de la Corte Constitucional sobre el aborto.
- Desean cumplir a cabalidad el acuerdo de paz firmado con las FARC.
Le recomendamos: Rodolfo Hernández: el voto silencioso que enfrentará a Petro
Siete hipótesis sobre la segunda vuelta
No se sabe qué pasará el próximo 19 de junio, pero la información disponible permite suponer que será una elección muy cerrada y se decidirá por un porcentaje diminuto de votos.
Los candidatos que pasaron a segunda vuelta son quienes mejor leyeron la realidad del país e hicieron las mejores campañas. Los dos coinciden en abanderar el cambio y, como vimos, en muchos temas específicos. Esto apoya la hipótesis de una elección cerrada. Si esto sucede, puede afirmarse que:
- La votación general aumentará y se acercará a los 23 millones de votos. Esto sucedió en elecciones competitivas como las de 1998 y 2014.
- Ambos candidatos aumentarán su votación y se acercarán a los 11,5 millones de votos.
- Por primera vez en muchos años el dinero no será un factor diferenciador y de manipulación del elector.
- Las redes sociales serán la nueva “plaza pública”; ambas campañas son robustas en este aspecto.
- Los votantes no se comportan como borregos, por eso aunque un excandidato apoye a Rodolfo o a Petro, esto no significa que las demás personas lo seguirán.
- El país está atento a los dos candidatos, por eso sus errores serán costosos, habrá una montaña rusa de emociones y cambios en los indicadores de opinión.
- Cada candidato tiene fortalezas y debilidades.
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Las fortalezas y las debilidades de Petro
Petro es un candidato con experiencia. Participa en su tercera campaña electoral para la presidencia y conoce las presiones de estos días. Además, recibió el mayor número de votos en la primera vuelta (40 %); por eso necesita apenas 3 millones de votos adicionales (en 2018 su aumento fue de 4 millones entre las dos vueltas). Petro puede conseguir ese número con la ayuda de sus seguidores, quienes difundirán sus ideas de forma voluntaria.
Este es momento de invitar a conversar. Basta ya con descalificarlas, con creer que se tiene siempre la razón o con acomodarse para evitar las tensiones.
Por lo demás, Petro cuenta con el grueso de los 8,5 millones de votos de la primera vuelta, su campaña es organizada y está a cargo de un grupo de líderes conocidos y con experiencia, como Francia Márquez, un fenómeno político con voz propia. Además ya presentó sus propuestas de cambio durante la campaña.
De interés: El Petro que conozco
Pero su ego es su gran debilidad. Sus fanáticos han descalificado y atacado a muchos sectores y por eso ahora es muy difícil tender puentes. Además el voto anti-Petro es un fenómeno cultural arraigado en un amplio sector de la población.
La idea principal de su campaña, el cambio, quedó obsoleta con el paso de Rodolfo a la segunda vuelta. Y el consenso general de su gestión en la Alcaldía de Bogotá es negativo, aunque se le reconocen algunos logros importantes.
Las fortalezas y las debilidades de Hernández
Rodolfo Hernández derrotó a la más grande organización de maquinarias en la primera vuelta, es la novedad de las elecciones y se apropió del mensaje anticorrupción.
Hernández tiene un gran margen para aumentar votos y recibirá los anti-Petro sin tener que esforzarse. Su campaña es enérgica en redes sociales y su gobierno en Bucaramanga recibió buenas calificaciones.
De interés: Rodolfo: la utopía de la anti-política extrema
Pero sus palabras son su principal debilidad. Su estilo estrafalario puede afectar su campaña en la segunda vuelta, la cual ni es organizada ni cuenta con el apoyo de líderes conocidos.
Además enfrenta una imputación de cargos por el escándalo de Vitalogic, algo que podría minar su discurso anticorrupción. Por eso hasta podría perder una parte de la votación que recibió en la primera vuelta.
El final de un largo recorrido
Esta campaña electoral ha sido larga y tuvo cuatro vueltas. Al comienzo 96 personas intentaron ser el nuevo presidente. En noviembre del año pasado había 68 nombres y para las consultas en marzo llegaron 22 candidatos. De las consultas quedaron ocho nombres y a la primera vuelta llegaron seis. Se acerca la cuarta vuelta presidencial y el país debe escoger entre dos opciones de cambio.
Leer: El falso mesías anticorrupción
Dos firmas presentaron los resultados de sus encuestas recientas. Una firma presentó una ventaja de 7 puntos a favor de Hernández en una primera medición que disminuyó después a apenas 1 punto.
La segunda firma realizó dos mediciones: Hernández ganó la primera por 1 punto y Petro ganó la segunda por 3 puntos. La competencia es muy cerrada y los cambios serán muy rápidos.
Puede interesar: Repetir el triunfo en segunda vuelta
En esta temporada de discusiones familiares y entre amigos sobre temas electorales recuerdo de las palabras de Adam Grant: quienes participan en una discusión pueden adoptar uno de tres papeles principales:
- El del predicador, que cree que posee la verdad y trata de convencer a los demás, quienes siempre están errados.
- El político, quien quiere quedar bien con todos, y modifica sus posiciones y argumentos según el interlocutor.
- El fiscal, quien oye los argumentos para encontrar sus fallas, les aplicar un test de consistencia y los descalifica.
Este es momento de invitar a conversar. Basta ya con descalificarlas, con creer que se tiene siempre la razón o con acomodarse para evitar las tensiones.
Leer: Carencia de formación Política
Es hora de dudar de las convicciones propias y de reconocer que un diálogo sobre la elección no es una pelea con un enemigo, sino una forma de llegar a una mejor decisión.
La democracia colombiana saldrá beneficiada de este proceso. Cualquiera que sea el candidato ganador, la situación actual cambiará. Tenemos varias opciones:
- Si uno de los dos candidatos nos gusta mucho, puedemos votar con alegría, optimismo y pasión.
- Si ambos nos generan dudas, miedos e incertidumbres, podemos votar contra el que nos cause mayor miedo.
- También podemos optar votar en blanco.
- Y algunos preferirán no votar.
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La última opción es la que menos me atrae, pero todas son alternativas reales y no hay que descalificar a nadie por ellas. Todos administran sus miedos y esperanzas de forma diferente, con una combinación de razones, emociones y experiencias. Al final, en el solitario minuto frente a la urna, cada uno elegirá lo que considera mejor para sí mismo y el país.
Afortunadamente cada voto cuenta y será contado.
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