Por: Eduardo Gutiérrez Arias
El columnista del periódico Voz, Iván Posada, escribió en la última edición de este semanario un artículo con el título “Inminente recesión económica”. Comparto el análisis que Posada hace sobre la economía colombiana. El desempleo ha venido creciendo, regresando a los dos dígitos y ubicándose en la actualidad en el 11.8%. El déficit en cuenta corriente, indicador que muestra cómo está el balance entre importaciones y exportaciones, ya llega a la alarmante cifra de US $7.100 millones, el 2% del PIB. La deuda externa del país ha subido a US134.000 millones y representa el 41% del PIB. El déficit fiscal se mantiene en el 3.1% del PIB. La mayoría de los sectores comerciales se quejan de una disminución en las ventas de sus productos. Todo esto configura un panorama de alto riesgo para la economía. La volatilidad en los precios de los commodities como el petróleo, el carbón y el café, de los que vive Colombia, contribuyen a aumentar la incertidumbre sobre el futuro económico nacional.
El gobierno en lugar de procurar medidas estructurales que conjuren los actuales peligros y construyan una economía sólida y diversificada basada en un desarrollo agropecuario equitativo como el propuesto en los acuerdos de paz de La Habana, en el crecimiento de la agroindustria y la industria que le genere valor agregado a la producción primaria, en la expansión del turismo y la industria cultural, para lo cual es esencial la conquista de la paz, la vigencia de los derechos humanos y el mejoramiento del nivel educativo del país; se va por la vía fácil de vender activos estratégicos de la nación como las acciones en Ecopetrol y empresas hidroeléctricas, dejándonos cada vez más a merced de las multinacionales. Esta venta de valiosos activos de la Nación, sólo son paliativos que hacia el futuro podrían engendrar una crisis más profunda. Otra salida altamente riesgosa es buscar el camino de la guerra, con el cercenamiento de las libertades, la concentración del poder en el ejecutivo y el desborde del nacionalismo, como lo hicieron Hitler en Alemania y Mussolini en Italia. Ya sabemos la tragedia a la condujeron no sólo a sus naciones sino a toda Europa.
Un viraje en el modelo económico de desarrollo y un pacto nacional para consolidar los acuerdos de La Habana y lograr la paz con todos los grupos insurgente, lograría reactivar la economía y alejar el fantasma de la recesión. Sin embargo dudo que Duque pueda acometer este gran propósito.
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