Por Marcos Silva Martínez.
El consumo medio diario, de combustibles fósiles, gasolina, diésel, yet, al final de 2022, alcanzó 340.000 barriles/día, en Colombia. La producción diaria de crudo, sigue estancada en 750.000/bd.
Por las cifras que entrega ECOPETROL, con las que parece construyen el espejismo de los ingresos y utilidades de la Empresa, en cifras, la totalidad de la producción la destina a la exportación, y la capacidad de refinación y el consumo nacional, lo satisface con, combustibles y crudo importado, a precio internacional.
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Según informe reciente de ECOPETROL (2022), la producción de gasolina, diésel y yet, de REFICAR, es de 129.000bd promedio (bd: barriles día), más otros derivados.
La capacidad máxima de carga de 220.000bd. Rendimiento total de 96.0%. La capacidad de la refinería de Barrancabermeja, 220bd. Así, con crudo nacional, se obtendría un volumen total, entre las dos refinerías, de 258.000bd. En consecuencia, hay faltante diario de 82.000bd, que debe ser importado (24.0%). Es la cruda realidad. La capacidad de refinación es deficitaria, gracias a la irresponsabilidad política y social-administrativa de anteriores gobiernos, al menos, desde la década de los 90, cuando la actividad exploratoria y de producción, superó los 120 pozos/año, respectivamente.
Son insumos que el Sr. Presidente Petro, debe analizar, para redefinir las políticas sobre industria petrolera, costos, precios de producción de combustibles y exportación
Con el sentido de responsabilidad social del Diario La Nación y de sus periodistas, he podido expresar conclusiones que pueden ayudar al lector, a entender la problemática socioeconómica y de gobernanza nacional. Son desafíos del nuevo gobierno.
De interés: Legados presidenciales
Sobre el déficit en refinación
Recordemos el desastre de REFICAR-Cartagena. El costo inicial de U$3.770 millones de dólares. Costo final, más de U$8.500 millones. U$4.730 millones más, equivalentes a $14.2 billones al cambio de $3.000/dólar, de ese tiempo.
Después de varios años de incumplimientos, investigaciones y comisión de delitos, solo hay dos presos. No hay recuperación de lo malversado.
REFICAR, comenzó operaciones en 2.015, con rendimiento muy inferior a 75% previsto. El hecho, obligó optimizarla casi inmediatamente (2019-2021), para mejorar rendimiento y capacidad de refinación. Causas del viacrucis de los, combustibles, entre otras.
Leer: Desafíos socio-económicos y jurídico-legales
La producción nacional de combustibles y crudo, de acuerdo con información de PORTAFOLIO.CO, (julio 2022), entre enero 1 y junio 30 de 2022, Colombia importó U$4.445 millones de dólares en combustibles o $20 billones de pesos por semestre.
Aquí el juego de naipes, combustibles-subsidios y déficit fiscal nacional
Costo de producción de crudo en Colombia: De acuerdo con estadísticas, (PFC Energy) el costo de producción de petróleo crudo, en Colombia, desde ha años está entre los más altos del planeta. En Portafolio.co, año 2016, se conoció que, a Colombia, la producción de un barril de crudo, en punto de refinación o embarque, costaba U$39.0/barril. Con ese costo de producción nacional, en el mercado internacional, a Colombia le generaba pérdidas.
El actual gerente de ECOPETROL ha informado que, debido a políticas de ajustes de costos de producción y transporte, el costo del barril, en punto de refinación o embarque, se redujo, hasta llegar U$16.8 dólares/barril (2021) y que, con la optimización de equipos y procesos de refinación, realizados en REFICAR entre 2019 y 2021, los rendimientos del proceso de refinación, alcanzaron 96.5% y capacidad de procesamiento de 220.000bd. Con esos parámetros de producción, alcanzó 129.000bd de combustible-motor REFICAR, (gasolina, diésel, yet) y con la producción de Barrancabermeja, se deben obtener 258.000bd. No cubren el 100% de demanda interna.
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Con base en lo expuesto, edificaron el castillo del Fondo de Estabilización de Precios de los combustibles.
Aquí, debe operar el factor SOBERANIA NACIONAL: ¿Quién gobierna a ECOPETROL? ¿Qué políticas aplican? ¿La importación la hace ECOPETROL o los abastecedores mayoristas? ¿A quién le giran los subsidios? Da la impresión que ECOPETROL, desde ha tiempo, funciona como una especie de República Independiente.
El precio de los combustibles, en surtidor, debe mantener correspondencia inequívoca con costos directos de producción, transportes y tasa racional impositiva y de ganancia.
A Ecopetrol, con costo directo interno nacional de U$16.8/barril de crudo y U$8.0/barril de refinación, el costo directo de producción de combustibles, para ECOPETROL, al cambio de hoy, es (U$24,8/42barriles = (U$0.57857/galón) X $4.800= $2.777 pesos/galón de combustible, en punto de refinación.
De interés: Causas de la crisis nacional colombiana y perspectivas
El impuesto global, sobre costo de producción es de 38% por ciento. Entonces, el costo del combustible en refinería es de $2.777×1.38 =$3.832/galón.
Más transportes, dividendos y otros, 30%. Da costo de $4.982/galón.
Entonces, $10.000/galón en surtidor – $4.982/galón refinería = $5.018/galón de utilidad extraordinaria.
En consecuencia, 258.000bd x $5.018 x 365días x 42gal. = $20.0 billones de utilidad extraordinaria/año
Con soberanía nacional, en precios y costos, se reduciría el déficit fiscal actual, por combustibles, en un 50%. Más manejable el costo de los combustibles y mucho menor el impacto en el costo de vida de los colombianos, el desarrollo nacional, etc. Ecopetrol debe ser intervenida, fiscal, administrativa,
operativa y técnicamente, para verificar cifras, verificar informes, sextuplicar actividad exploratoria y producción. Institucional, política, administrativa y operativamente, Colombia exige reconstrucción integral, para lograr desarrollo socio-económico e industrial integral.
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