NUEVO RIVAL  DE CARLOS SLIM: EL  ESTADO QUE AYUDÓ A CREAR SU FORTUNA

Actualidad Emprendimiento / Gente Política / Judicial

 Por Azam Ahmed, Randal C. Archibold y Elisabeth Malkin 

No todo marcha bien en el reino de Carlos Slim.

Durante más de 25 años, Slim ha dictado los términos de la industria de las telecomunicaciones en México y ha construido un imperio, lo que lo llevó a ser uno de los hombres más ricos del mundo.

Su fortuna se calcula en 50 mil millones de dólares, una cifra que lo ha puesto en la cima de la lista de multimillonarios de Forbes en más de una ocasión. Sus años de riqueza en México le permitieron expandir sus negocios a lo largo del continente americano con compañías que tocan casi todas las facetas de la vida moderna: telecomunicaciones, bancos, construcción y comercio minorista, entre otros.

Pero en su tierra, en México, el juego está cambiando. Y los analistas dicen que no hay mucho que Slim pueda hacer.

Decididos a acabar con su dominio, los líderes de los tres partidos políticos más importantes de México hicieron a un lado sus enemistades en los últimos años y sostuvieron reuniones secretas para socavar el dominio de Slim.

Ahora, el plan que tramaron para aumentar la competencia en la industria de las telecomunicaciones, convertido en ley hace dos años, está comenzando a tener efectos.

Las ganancias de la principal compañía de Slim, América Móvil, están en un declive pronunciado. Cayeron un 24 por ciento en 2015 y casi un 44 por ciento en el primer semestre de este año. Una métrica cuidadosamente analizada de la rentabilidad en Wall Street también ha caído, y las acciones de la empresa han disminuido en un 39 por ciento desde julio del año pasado.

En su informe trimestral de finales de julio, la compañía reconoció que el aumento de la competencia fue limitando sus ganancias en México. De acuerdo con la nueva ley, la empresa de Slim debe someterse a reglas especiales por ser la empresa de telefonía dominante en el país. No puede cobrar tarifas a sus competidores más pequeños cuando sus usuarios utilicen su red, por ejemplo. Se supone que la compañía debe compartir su infraestructura con los competidores, incluidas las torres para telefonía móvil, por lo que Slim dice que lo obligan a subsidiar a gigantes como AT&T.

“Lo que más ha cambiado y es más importante aquí son las autoridades y su actitud hacia su imperio”, explicó Ernesto Piedras, director general de Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa consultora y de investigación. “Esta es la primera vez que Slim no tiene una copia de todas las llaves”.

Los reguladores en México, a veces contra los deseos del gobierno, han tratado de controlar el dominio que ha mantenido Slim durante décadas y se han visto frustrados en cada ocasión.

Su monopolio era tan hegemónico que le costó a los mexicanos 13 mil millones adicionales al año entre 2005 y 2009, según la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE). Sin embargo, su riqueza, sus ejércitos de abogados y sus vínculos con el gobierno lo mantuvieron un paso por delante de los reguladores, según algunos exfuncionarios.

Pero cuando el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) volvió a la presidencia en 2012, buscó reafirmar su poder en un país donde el Estado —y no las grandes empresas— había sido el rey. Slim le ofrecía una forma de anotarse puntos con la ciudadanía: los mexicanos ya estaban cansados y se quejaban públicamente por lo que calificaban como un servicio caro y a menudo poco fiable.

La reforma de las telecomunicaciones era una parte esencial del impulso del presidente Enrique Peña Nieto para reestructurar la imagen de México y de su partido, que había gobernado el país durante setenta años antes de perder las elecciones por primera vez en el 2000. Peña Nieto prometió un nuevo PRI, uno dedicado a reactivar la economía. Prometió una nueva era para el país, a la que llamó “el momento de México”.

La celebración duró poco, ya que los escándalos de corrupción y de seguridad hicieron que los niveles de aprobación de Peña Nieto cayeran a un nivel nunca antes visto en un presidente en 25 años. Pero la reestructuración económica continuó. México está invitando a las empresas privadas a extraer petróleo. Los cambios en el sistema de educación pública ya están en marcha. Y Slim enfrenta una competencia real por primera vez.

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Las oficinas de Telmex, la compañía que Carlos Slim le compró al gobierno mexicano Credit. Bernardo Montoya/Reuters

Para México, la ley de telecomunicaciones ofrece un marcado contraste con muchas promesas incumplidas del Estado (poner fin a la impunidad, encarnar el Estado de derecho, reducir la desigualdad). Que el gobierno haya decidido enfrentarse a Slim, quizá el ciudadano más poderoso del país, es la prueba de que cuando existe voluntad política en México hay una forma de hacerlo.

“Este gobierno invirtió en reformas económicas, pero ignoró las reformas en el sistema judicial y en el campo de la corrupción”, dijo Enrique Krauze, un prominente historiador mexicano que conoce a Slim.

Aun así, los cambios han hecho poca mella en la porción de mercado que pertenece a Slim, quien retiene casi el 70 por ciento del mercado de telefonía móvil y cerca del 65 por ciento en telefonía fija.

En una entrevista, Slim dijo que la nueva ley de telecomunicaciones mexicana establecía el tipo de garantías que todo hombre de negocios aprecia. Pero se enfureció ante la idea de que su empresa requería una normatividad especial por ser dominante, o de que había postergado o impedido la regulación en el pasado.

“Ve todas las regulaciones que nos han puesto. Velas”, dijo. “Cada vez que se quejan de algo, hacen gestiones para que pongan una regulación”.

Slim reconoció que las ganancias se han reducido. Los problemas de divisas en América Latina han cobrado un precio elevado. Y el ingreso reciente de AT&T, que ha prometido gastar miles de millones para competir contra la empresa de Slim, ha ayudado a disminuir de manera significativa los precios de la telefonía móvil. Y aun así, dijo Slim, sus clientes se han mantenido fieles.

“Creían que iban a arrasar por llamarse AT&T”, dijo. “Por un lado dicen que son ‘la red más grande de Norteamérica’ y, por otro, dicen que como aquí son una red chiquita que les demos subsidio”.

Este año, los reguladores mexicanos determinarán si las nuevas medidas son suficientes para restringir el dominio de Slim. Los reguladores pueden doblegar a América Móvil si deciden que no está abierta a la competencia, y pueden imponerle fuertes multas o incluso ordenar la división de la empresa.

En general, Slim parecía optimista sobre sus perspectivas.

“Lo he dicho varias veces: las telecomunicaciones son el sistema nervioso de la nueva civilización”, sentenció. “Tienes que tener una visión de mediano y largo plazo. Nosotros no podemos tener visiones trimestrales”.

No todos los analistas comparten su punto de vista. “Lo peor aún no termina”, dijo Andre Baggio, un analista de J. P. Morgan.

OPORTUNIDAD A LA VISTA

Incluso antes de que se convirtiera en un nombre conocido, Carlos Slim ya era un hombre rico. Durante la inestabilidad de los ochenta —una época que suele denominarse la “década perdida” en México—, Slim se había hecho rico comprando empresas en quiebra.

Mientras el país se hundía aún más en la depresión económica, Slim era el inusual hombre de negocios con los bolsillos inagotables. En ese entonces el presidente Carlos Salinas de Gortari, bajo presión en 1990 por vender empresas estatales, envió a un alto funcionario para medir el interés de Slim en la compañía telefónica nacional, Teléfonos de México.

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Personas con máscaras de Carlos Slim durante una protesta en Lima en 2013 en contra de su monopolio de telecomunicaciones y su expansión en varios países de América Latina. CreditEnrique Castro-Mendivil/Reuters

Las reglas del juego eran sencillas: quien estuviera dispuesto a comprar la compañía recibiría un monopolio temporal. A cambio, el ganador tendría que invertir miles de millones en una empresa tan ruinosa que los mexicanos no sabían si sus líneas telefónicas iban a tener tono para llamar.

Slim se mostró escéptico. Pero vislumbró una oportunidad.

“Si entro y gano, esto va a cambiar mi vida”, escuchó decir a Slim Jacques Rogozinski, el funcionario mexicano a cargo de la venta.

Y así fue.

Hay varias historias sobre el ascenso de Carlos Slim: un hijo de inmigrantes libaneses que heredó un negocio familiar minorista y construyó un imperio, ladrillo por ladrillo, a lo largo de América Latina. Sus vastas propiedades incluyen un número significativo de acciones de The New York Times.

Pero hay otra parte, dicen los funcionarios: la de atar la regulación a innumerables nudos jurídicos, la de hacerse amigo de los ricos y poderosos para que entendieran que su propio éxito dependía del éxito de Slim.

Esta es una afirmación que molesta a Slim, quien niega haber obstaculizado la regulación. En última instancia, mencionó, eso se reduce a la elección del consumidor, ya se trate de México o de cualquier otro lugar.

Dice: “En un mercado de 110 millones de usuarios tú no puedes hacer que una empresa los retenga”.

Poco después de ganar la licitación de Telmex, Slim se puso a trabajar para mejorar el servicio con sus socios originales, Southwestern Bell y France Télécom; ambas luego vendieron sus acciones en la sociedad. Instaló millones de líneas telefónicas por todo el país y acabó con la práctica habitual de los reparadores de pedir sobornos.

Durante años, el gobierno dejó que Slim dirigiera su monopolio sin interferencias. Estaba construyendo algo más grande que una compañía. Como una de las empresas más importantes de un país emergente en el mercado de valores, Telmex fue vista como un barómetro para toda una clase de activos en Wall Street. La lógica era: hazle daño a Telmex y podrás herir la percepción que el mercado tiene de México.

Pero con el tiempo hubo desacuerdo en las filas. Los funcionarios encargados de regular la competencia en el país trataron de controlarlo. En 1997, la Comisión Federal de Competencia de México dictaminó que Telmex era demasiado poderosa.

Poco después de la decisión, el director de la comisión, Fernando Sánchez Ugarte, recibió una llamada de un alto funcionario que estaba nervioso.

“Esto va a destruir el mercado de valores”, le dijo al director del organismo.

Las apelaciones de Slim contra la sentencia duraron una década, hasta que un juez decidió a su favor. Los reguladores —superados en número, en presupuesto y tratando de reforzar leyes débiles— nunca tuvieron mucha oportunidad, dijeron algunos exfuncionarios.

Los exreguladores recuerdan cómo los abogados de Slim entraban en fila india a la sala de conferencias cargando enormes cajas de documentos para reuniones de rutina. Al menos en una ocasión se le dijo al pelotón de abogados que esperara afuera porque la sala era muy pequeña.

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El museo de Carlos Slim en Ciudad de México. Es un homenaje a su esposa, Soumaya, quien murió en 1999. Fue criticado en una reseña como “una bolsa de objetos de miles de categorías”.CreditRonaldo Schemidt/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

“La historia no se trata de Slim”, dijo Robert Lacy, quien estuvo a cargo del asunto regulatorio en relación con AVANTEL, un primer competidor de Telmex. “El gobierno simplemente cedió”.

Slim dijo que nunca tuvo la intención de amarrar el sistema o de competir injustamente. Más bien, dijo, cuando tuvo que enfrentar una restricción o una multa injusta, él solo se defendió.

MÁS ALLÁ DE MÉXICO

Carlos Slim suele ser comparado con Warren Buffett por su relativamente bajo perfil y su estilo paternalista. Todavía vive en la modesta casa donde crecieron sus hijos y conduce su auto por la ciudad, a diferencia de muchos de la clase acomodada de México.

Hace años, en una visita a una de sus omnipresentes tiendas Sanborns, el empresario se topó con uno de los poetas más reconocidos de México, Homero Aridjis, quien leía un periódico que estaba a la venta en la tienda. Slim le insistió en que lo comprara.

“Él no cree que nada debe ser gratis”, dijo Aridjis, quien agregó que Slim finalmente desistió.

En lugar de servir lujosos banquetes en sus reuniones, algunas veces Slim solo ordena comida de Sanborns, cuya estética recuerda a los restaurantes estadounidenses de una generación anterior.

Slim desembarcó en Brasil en el 2000 y compró empresas de telefonía móvil para crear una compañía nacional. Entonces se enfrentó a una demanda de casi una década con el brazo de inversiones del banco estatal de desarrollo de Brasil, y esperó pacientemente a que los legisladores permitieran a los extranjeros aumentar su control sobre la televisión de pago.

Ese era el Slim clásico. Hoy Brasil es el mercado de suscriptores más grande de América Móvil, mayor incluso que el de México.

Su estrategia incluyó la construcción de una relación cercana con el entonces presidente, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, quien ahora enfrenta cargos por obstrucción de una enorme investigación de corrupción. Slim no ha sido acusado de ningún delito.

No era la primera vez que Slim entablaba amistad con un presidente. En Panamá se hizo amigo rápidamente del expresidente Martín Torrijos: volaba en avión para ir a reuniones, compartir cenas con él y en alguna ocasión incluso le prestó su jet privado para que pudiera asistir al funeral del papa Juan Pablo II.

Panamá representaba una oportunidad y Slim la quería. Después de años de estancamiento bajo la dictadura de Manuel Noriega, Panamá fijó sus esperanzas en las inversiones. Slim, a su vez, vio la posibilidad de expandir su imperio de telefonía móvil y obtener contratos para la expansión del Canal de Panamá.

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El comedor del Sanborns ubicado en la Casa de los Azulejos en el centro histórico de Ciudad de México. La cadena de tiendas departamentales es parte de los negocios de Slim, quien suele pedir comida de Sanborns para sus reuniones. CreditGetty Images

Slim logró ambas cosas, pero quería más: una concesión para construir y operar una central de energía hidroeléctrica. Solo había un problema: los derechos ya pertenecían a alguien más, un emprendedor llamado Julio César Lisac, quien había adquirido una concesión de 50 años para las dos represas en 2005.

Un día, un ingeniero mexicano visitó a Lisac.

El ingeniero trabajaba para la empresa eléctrica estatal de México, cuyo gerente ejecutivo era el hermano del yerno de Slim. Fue una visita extraña. La empresa estatal de electricidad mexicana no podía construir ni financiar proyectos fuera del país. A Lisac le quedó claro, dijo, que quien estaba realmente interesado era Slim.

Con el tiempo, los representantes legales de Ideal, una compañía de infraestructura que controla Slim, le hicieron una oferta que Lisac rechazó.

“Slim no es tonto”, apuntó. “Sabía que teníamos buenas represas en una buena ubicación”.

De todos modos, Slim se terminó quedando con el proyecto. Después de no cumplir un plazo, Lisac fue despojado de la concesión en 2006. Menos de dos años más tarde, se le otorgó la concesión a la compañía de Slim.

El empresario panameño peleó en la Corte Suprema de Justicia y ganó, pero los reguladores se rehusaron a cumplir la orden. Para entonces, 2010, Slim ya había construido la central eléctrica y la estaba operando.

Lisac sospechó que la relación cada vez más cercana de Slim con el presidente Ricardo Martinelli, un magnate de supermercados elegido en 2009, podría haber tenido algo que ver. Slim había visitado a Martinelli una semana después de la decisión de la Corte Suprema y habían mantenido buenas relaciones, incluso fueron al último juego del famoso lanzador panameño Mariano Rivera con los Yankees de Nueva York.

Lisac no se dio por vencido y acudió a una corte del Banco Mundial en 2013, pero esta rechazó su impugnación en junio de 2016 con el argumento de que se trataba de una disputa interna de Panamá.

Slim negó que hubiera juego sucio y señaló que él y su empresa habían obtenido la concesión en una licitación del gobierno.

“El demandado era el gobierno de Panamá y el gobierno ya ganó ese pleito”, dijo Slim.

INVERSIONES SUSPENDIDAS

Slim no siempre ha prevalecido. En 2011 hizo una visita a los reguladores que acababan de obtener un fallo a su favor del Tribunal Superior de Justicia de México que iba a costarle una fortuna.

El fallo recorta una importante fuente de ingresos de Slim al forzarlo a aceptar tarifas considerablemente reducidas por llamadas de otros proveedores de telefonía celular en sus redes. Slim había luchado contra esos recortes durante años, y le dijo a los reguladores que estaban cometiendo un error.

Pero la opinión pública ya estaba en su contra.

Aunque Slim había invertido fuertemente en el servicio de telefonía de México durante los primeros años, el ritmo se debilitó de manera significativa para la década del 2000. El servicio sufrió las consecuencias, pero no las ganancias. En 2008, el reporte de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos(OCDE) encontró que el margen de ganancias de América Móvil era casi un 70 por ciento más alto que el promedio de los demás países miembro.

México se rezagó también frente a sus pares de América Latina en la expansión del acceso a la banda ancha móvil y quedó detrás de Brasil, Argentina, Colombia e incluso Venezuela, de acuerdo con las cifras de 2014 de la Comisión de la Banda Ancha para el Desarrollo Sostenible, una iniciativa de las Naciones Unidas.

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El centro histórico de Ciudad de México, un distrito que Slim ha ayudado a restaurar. Credit Jaime Puebla/Associated Press

Slim es uno de los copresidentes de la comisión. Al preguntarle por qué hay franjas rurales de su país que no tienen recepción de telefonía celular, mencionó a los reguladores.

“Empezaron a insistir en que teníamos mucha participación de mercado y que era motivo para regulación”, dijo. “Suspendimos la inversión en lugares donde íbamos a tener el 100 por ciento del mercado”.

Muchos mexicanos sentían que estaban pagando más por menos, y eso abrió una oportunidad para el nuevo gobierno. Cuando Enrique Peña Nieto asumió la presidencia en 2012, se fraguó un plan.

El gobierno y los tres principales partidos políticos del país se reunieron en secreto, a menudo entrada la noche, en diferentes lugares de Ciudad de México para evitar filtraciones hasta que la legislación estuviese casi lista.

También le apuntaron a dos compañías de televisión dominantes en México que habían sido igualmente agresivas en la protección de sus cuotas de mercado.

Una vez que se llegó a un acuerdo, los legisladores consagraron la ley en la constitución para desviar las impugnaciones legales características de Slim y establecieron tribunales especiales para que las resolvieran.

TRES JUGADAS POR DELANTE

Aquellos que conocen a Slim dicen que había anticipado desde hacía mucho tiempo que algún día disminuiría su control de las telecomunicaciones en México.

“Él sabía que pasaría esto”, dijo James R. Jones, exembajador estadounidense en México durante los noventa. “Y yo sospecho que él ya estaba planeando sus próximos movimientos”.

Aunque el dominio de Slim, y sus ganancias, pueden estar en riesgo en México, su riqueza ya no depende de ello.

“Él comenzó a invertir en otras cosas”, dijo el año pasado el exsecretario de comunicaciones Juan Molinar, en una entrevista antes de morir. “Hay que seguir el dinero”.

Así que, durante años, el dinero ha fluido por otro lado.

En Estados Unidos, los resultados han sido mixtos. Una inversión en el minorista CompUSA fue un fracaso, mientras que el préstamo de 250 millones de dólares a The New York Times fue una excelente inversión. Ahora es el principal accionista de la empresa (Slim tiene acciones de clase A, que tienen limitado el derecho al voto sobre la junta directiva).

Sus compañías construyen y alquilan plataformas petroleras y pozos de extracción, operan represas en Panamá y construyen gasoductos en México y en Estados Unidos. Incluso está haciendo negocios con el alumno más famoso de Halliburton, Dick Cheney, al invertir junto al exvicepresidente en WellAware, una empresa emergente de servicios de software relacionados con la extracción de petróleo de Texas.

El proyecto de 13 mil millones de dólares del Aeropuerto de Ciudad de México tiene sus huellas, también, incluyendo la participación de un yerno arquitecto y de otro pariente político que participó en el comité de diseño.

Aunque el miembro del comité se recusó a sí mismo, la prensa local vio lo que ve a menudo: “El nuevo aeropuerto de la Ciudad de México tendrá el sello de Carlos Slim”, como lo describió un titular.

Comentarios

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