Colombia tendrá una economía más pujante en los próximos 10 años en un escenario de paz por el aumento de la inversión extranjera directa, el repunte de la construcción, el aumento de las actividades agrícolas, turísticas e industriales, entre los principales aspectos que dinamizarán el desarrollo del país.
“Con una Colombia en paz, el crecimiento potencial del país aumentará entre 1,1% y 1,9% basado, principalmente, por la mayor confianza a futuro en Colombia, esto generará entre 120.000 y 200.000 empleos adicionales en un lapso de 10 años”, sostuvo el director del Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Simón Gaviria Muñoz.
Gaviria Muñoz explicó que el número de los empleos adicionales se calcula con base en la elasticidad del empleo, que en el caso de Colombia se encuentra en 0,7%, es decir, que por cada punto porcentual que crece el PIB, el empleo crece 0,7%.
Uno de los primeros análisis realizados por el DNP tiene que ver con el ingreso per cápita. Según Gaviria Muñoz, si se divide el ingreso total de país entre todos los habitantes, en promedio, este será de 12.000 dólares, frente a los 6.800 dólares actuales.
Otro aspecto importante para la economía colombiana será el alza de la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED), con un dividendo que se refleja en un aumento de 3,3 puntos del PIB. Esto permitiría alcanzar US$36.000 millones de IED en el largo plazo, frente a US$12.000 millones de hoy.
Habrá un incremento de la apertura y dinamización de las exportaciones con una mayor oferta de bienes y servicios para el comercio internacional. El dividendo es de 6,4 puntos del PIB adicionales de exportaciones, lo que le permitiría a Colombia alcanzar los US$65.000 millones sostenidos en el largo plazo.
Se espera un fortalecimiento profundo del crecimiento en los sectores de agricultura e industria. Los dividendos para estos sectores son de 1 punto porcentual de crecimiento adicional en el largo plazo.
El sector de la construcción continuará jugando un papel fundamental en el posconflicto. El dividendo es de 4,4 puntos adicionales de crecimiento en el largo plazo.
La metodología de la medición
El director del Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Simón Gaviria Muñoz, explicó que las proyecciones económicas de una Colombia en paz provienen de un estudio que utiliza una rigurosa metodología en la que se analizaron los 117 países que han tenido conflictos armados, esto usando la base de datos de Universidad de Uppsala de Suecia, que permite cruzar 16 variables para clasificar los países según la intensidad de los conflictos armados (alta o baja).
De esta muestra, se filtraron los países que tuvieron una terminación del conflicto, para obtener 36 países (31 con acuerdos de paz y 5 con victoria militar). De los 31 países con acuerdo de paz se cruza datos del Peace Accords Matrix construida por el Kroc Institute de la Universidad de Notre Dame en Estados Unidos que tiene la información de los acuerdos de paz en el mundo suscritos a la fecha. Además, incorpora variables relacionadas con las medidas consignadas en los mismos y su seguimiento.
Finalmente, se cruza esta información con las variables incluidas en el proceso de paz colombiano y se obtiene una última muestra de 18 países, que tuvieron un proceso de paz similar al caso colombiano. El DNP realizó su estudio sobre estas tres agrupaciones de países (36, 31 y 18) analizando el impacto económico de la terminación del conflicto sobre 16 de las principales variables desarrollo de un país.
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