El dato básico es bastante simple: el Estado colombiano gasta un 24% del PIB, y los impuestos que pagan los colombianos equivalen apenas al 15%. Esto significa que desde años hemos vivido de recursos ocasionales, de aumentar la deuda y de maromas diversas que se inventan los ministros de Hacienda El Gran problema del Gobierno Petroreformas tvnoticiascol www.tvnoticias.com.co

El Gran problema del Gobierno Petro

Actualidad Columnistas

Por Hernando Gómez (Tomado de Razón Pública).

El dato básico es bastante simple: el Estado colombiano gasta un 24% del PIB, y los impuestos que pagan los colombianos equivalen apenas al 15%. Esto significa que desde años hemos vivido de recursos ocasionales, de aumentar la deuda y de maromas diversas que se inventan los ministros de Hacienda.

El principal recurso ocasional fue por supuesto la bonanza petrolera, que entre 2003 y 2014 aportó un 25% promedio del presupuesto nacional. Esta fuente de ingresos se desplomó a partir de ese año, así que Santos y Duque se dedicaron al rebusque y a raspar la olla. Por eso, quienquiera fuera el sucesor de Duque, encontraría un margen de maniobra mucho más reducido.

Le puede interesar: Empezó el gobierno de Petro: otra Reforma Tributaria

Los precios del petróleo han mejorado algo, pero no lo bastante. Y esto además aumenta el costo del subsidio al precio interno de la gasolina, que este año llegará a 4% del PIB: ¿será que el nuevo gobierno desmonta este subsidio y deja que la inflación llegue a las nubes?

Las maromas para tapar ese déficit real o subyacente de casi 10% del ingreso nacional han sido tantas, que Santos hizo siete reformas tributarias, Duque propuso cinco e hizo tres.  A esto se añadieron reformas constitucionales y múltiples decretos para echar mano de recursos ajenos, en especial los de las regiones y de futuras generaciones. Fue el rebusque y la raspada de la olla.

De interés: Los símbolos de la posesión de Petro como Presidente

Hay otras dos medidas que anuncian todos los gobiernos, pero no pueden cumplir: acabar la evasión en un país con el 70% de informalidad, y recortar los gastos que no pueden recortarse (pensiones, intereses, funcionamiento…).

Así que las reformas y rebusques no alcanzaron, y el saldo de la deuda del gobierno nacional pasó de cerca del 40% del PIB en 2014 a cerca del 60% que hoy tenemos. El servicio de esta deuda absorbe la cuarta parte de los impuestos, e infortunadamente subirá con las tasas de interés.

Leer: La lección de estadista de Petro

A pesar de las reformas tributarias, las maromas y aumentos de la deuda, el déficit fiscal fue así el más alto de un siglo en el 2021 (7,1% del PIB). A punta de maquillajes, Duque lo entregará en 5,6%, pero la regla fiscal obliga a reducirlo a 3% en 2026. El próximo gobierno tendría entonces que apretarse el cinturón… o agravar la inflación.

Por todo eso, desde hace varios años, las misiones y expertos han insistido en la reforma tributaria “de verdad”. Sin IVA y sin caerle a las empresas, esa reforma solo puede caerle a los que ganan “más de 10 millones”. Esto era inevitable, pero también aquí comienza el lío. Primero, porque Petro y Ocampo no saben cuánto es que van a pedir: ¿75 billones, 50 billones al año, o en cuatro años, o 25 este año y después Dios dirá? Segundo, porque el oficio de los congresistas hasta ahora ha consistido en dañar las reformas tributarias. Y tercero porque, a no ser que expropiemos a los que ganan esos 10 millones, la plata alcanzaría para sanear las finanzas del Estado, es decir, para tapar el hueco que traemos.

Le puede interesar: ¿Por qué ganó Petro?

¿Cómo hará Petro entonces para cumplir siquiera en una parte un programa de gobierno que consiste en una larga serie de nuevas entidades, gastos y transferencias sociales del Estado?

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