Por Yann Basset (Tomado de RazónPública.com)
El tono conciliador, buenos ministros, mayoría en el congreso… pero también tensiones partidistras, anuncio de reformas impopulares, jugadas desconcertantes y un discurso del presidente del Senado que siembra serias dudas sobre el rumbo del gobierno
UN BUEN COMIENZO
Con una elección cómoda en la segunda vuelta y significativas mayorías en el Congreso, el gobierno de Duque prometía arrancar con el pie derecho.
Tras una campaña electoral sumamente agresiva, Iván Duque invitó al diálogo mediante el discurso conciliador que adoptó tras su victoria en la segunda vuelta.
Este gesto prosiguió con el anuncio de los nuevos ministros quienes, en general, fueron bien recibidos por la opinión pública:
- Contrariamente a lo que se esperaba, el gobierno no incluyó representantes de los sectores más radicales del uribismo ni de la derecha religiosa, por lo menos en los cargos más altos.
- El presidente cumplió su promesa de nombrar el primer gobierno paritario, con tantas ministras como ministros.
- Se incluyeron varias personas jóvenes con alta formación académica y conocedoras del sector para el cual fueron nombradas.
Recomendamos; Gabinete de Duque ¿Quilmes son y a quienes representan?
EL MÁS Y EL MENOS DE UN GABINETE TECNÓCRATA
Foto: Twitter- Marta Lucía Ramírez
Pero esta opción no está exenta de riesgos. Llama la atención la poca experiencia del nuevo gobierno, así como su incapacidad para conectarse con el Congreso y con la opinión pública. La ministra del Interior, Nancy Patricia Gutiérrez, ha estado ausente de la escena política durante varios años, y los ministros con mayor experiencia y relaciones políticas, como Carlos Holmes Trujillo y Alicia Arango, están encargados de áreas alejadas de la contienda política o muy delimitadas.Con eso, Duque parece apostarle a un gobierno de estilo “tecnocrático”, en la línea de Juan Manuel Santos, lo cual es bastante popular dado el clima antipolítico que se manifestó en las elecciones.
El presidente del Congreso, se encargó de aguar la fiesta.
De cara a la opinión, esto puede tener altos costos, especialmente tras el anuncio de las reformas fiscal y tributaria, las cuales tienden a causar impopularidad. Este riesgo es reforzado por la inclusión de varios representantes de gremios económicos y financieros en el gobierno, quienes no podrán evitar estar bajo sospecha por orientar sus acciones en función de los intereses de sus sectores.
CERCANÍA Y TENSIÓN EN EL CONGRESO
De cara a los congresistas, el presidente Duque parece tenerla más fácil.
Además del apoyo de Centro Democrático (CD), el partido más fuerte en el Senado, obtuvo para la segunda vuelta el apoyo de la totalidad de la ex Unidad Nacional de Santos, con unas pocas excepciones en el Partido Liberal (PL) y el partido de la U, así como el refuerzo de los cristianos. Este bloque ampliamente mayoritario le permite darse el lujo de no integrar representantes de otros partidos en su gobierno. Sin embargo, esto y los acuerdos entre el presidente y los partidos Conservador (PC) y Liberal causaron descontento por el lado de Cambio Radical (CR) y la U.
Aunque hasta ahora no han tenido mayor resonancia, las primeras reacciones de los dirigentes de estos partidos permiten inferir que no prestarán al gobierno un apoyo incondicional. Se empieza a hablar de una mayoría de dos velocidades con un núcleo “clase A” que incluye al CD, el PC, el PL y los cristianos, y una versión ampliada a una “clase B” con CR y la U.
Puede leer; El Gobierno de Duque y el congreso: Una relación novedosa y sorprendente
Otra versión considera que estos dos últimos partidos no harían siquiera parte de la mayoría sino de un bloque independiente. En ese caso, el gobierno Duque no tendría la mayoría asegurada en el Senado, especialmente si tomamos en cuenta el hecho de que los partidos Conservador y Liberal estuvieron entre los más indisciplinados en la legislatura pasada.
De este modo, el anuncio de un gobierno “técnico” alejado de los partidos suena muy bien en la opinión, pero podría enredarle al presidente Duque la aritmética de la gobernabilidad y complicar el cumplimiento de la promesa de no usar “mermelada” para aceitar las relaciones con el Congreso.
UNA POSESIÓN TEMPESTUOSA
Foto: Twitter- Marta Lucía Ramírez
Con un discurso partidista, agresivo y fuera de lugar, el senador Macías pintó un balance apocalíptico del gobierno saliente, rindió un homenaje insistente al expresidente Uribe como salvador de la Patria, y encargó el nuevo gobierno de manera poco delicada con misiones y tareas en todos los ámbitos.Se temía que la ceremonia de posesión fuera entorpecida por las marchas convocadas por la oposición para reclamar la protección de los líderes sociales, pero no fue así. Aunque los dirigentes de la oposición asistieron al juramento del presidente en perfecto respeto al decoro de la tradición republicana, el presidente del Congreso, miembro del partido del presidente, se encargó de aguar la fiesta.
Esta intervención inapropiada opacó el discurso del propio presidente que, aunque incluyó algunas críticas al gobierno saliente, fue redactado en términos mucho más convencionales y reiteró constantemente la línea conciliadora que había manejado hasta entonces el presidente electo.
El contraste entre los dos discursos dejó perplejos a los observadores. Para unos, deja entrever un distanciamiento entre el presidente y su partido que podría ser problemático. Desde antes de su designación como candidato, Iván Duque despertaba resistencia entre el ala más radical de su partido por su discurso ponderado, centrado en temas económicos relativamente consensuales.
La adopción del discurso conciliador después de las elecciones, la designación de un gabinete sin participación del uribismo más radical, el acuerdo con el partido Liberal, son elementos que parecen alejar el presidente de su partido. “Una cosa es el Centro Democrático y otra, el gobierno”, afirmaba Martha Lucía Ramírez poco antes de la investidura. La fórmula fue retomada en tono más irónico por Paloma Valencia en la reunión de la bancada de CD después de la ceremonia.
¿Será posible evitar la ruptura entre un gobierno centrado en asuntos técnico-administrativos y un partido obsesionado en tramitar medidas polémicas en el Congreso?
Los que consideran que el doble discurso del CD fue calculado y concertado con el presidente sostienen que esta repartición de papeles podría ser efectiva. Ahora bien, esta estrategia de puede tener éxito a corto plazo, pero a largo plazo parece insostenible.
Para no ir más lejos, es innegable que opacó las marchas opositoras y dejó a los críticos atónitos sin saber si enfocar sus críticas hacia Uribe, hacia Duque, o hacia ambos. Sin embargo, genera una gran incertidumbre de la que no puede salir nada bueno para el gobierno. Más aún, ¿será que los demás socios de la coalición estarían dispuestos a prestarse para seguir con este juego de confusiones?
¿CÁLCULOS HÁBILES O INGENUOS DESATINOS?
Aunque el discurso de Macías se robó la atención, el presidente también hizo algunos anuncios importantes e inesperados en su primer discurso. Cuando esperábamos pistas sobre la reforma tributaria, la reforma pensional, y otros temas económicos, el mandatario reveló que uno de los primeros textos que se pondrán a consideración del Congreso retoma lo esencial de las propuestas de la consulta anticorrupción prevista para el 26 de agosto.
El anuncio fue confirmado poco después con la adición de una reforma política que busca suprimir el voto preferente y volver obligatorias las elecciones internas para seleccionar candidatos en los partidos y dar mayor autonomía al Consejo Nacional Electoral. Esta reforma sorprende porque retoma banderas que ya fueron usadas por el gobierno anterior –y rechazadas por el Congreso con el CD a la cabeza– y por la oposición, pues la consulta anticorrupción fue convocada por la senadora Angélica Lozano y la exsenadora Claudia López.
Aunque Duque había anunciado desde la campaña su apoyo a esta consulta, el anticiparse a ella presentando las propuestas al Congreso causa dudas sobre las verdaderas intenciones del nuevo gobierno. A través de Twitter, Gustavo Petro manifestó su inconformidad con esta decisión, afirmando que el gobierno trataba de quitarle piso a la consulta popular para devolver el tema al Congreso.
¿Será posible evitar la ruptura entre un gobierno centrado en asuntos técnico-administrativos y un partido obsesionado en tramitar medidas polémicas en el congreso?
Como lo confirmó esta semana el Registrador Nacional del Estado Civil, la consulta es irreversible, pero al anunciar que el Congreso debatirá las medidas, Duque les regala argumentos a los que se oponen a la consulta. Si era difícil oponerse abiertamente al mecanismo porque podían quedar como defensores de los políticos corruptos, ahora podrán argumentar que la consulta es costosa e innecesaria.
De esta forma, podrían convencer a algunos electores de no desplazarse a las urnas, para dificultar que la consulta pase el umbral. Es la vía que ha tomado CD. Si la consulta se cae, los congresistas quedarían en libertad para modificar la propuesta y quitarle los aspectos que se oponen a sus intereses. De hecho, llama la atención que Duque no haya retomado el punto de reducir el salario de los congresistas.
RP le recomienda: ¿Por qué rebajar el salario de los Congresistas?
Aunque el presidente intenta quedar bien frente a la opinión pública retomando las populares banderas de la consulta, toma el riesgo (¿calculado?) de facilitar el trabajo de sus críticos para neutralizarla.
Sobre la reforma política, Duque retoma propuestas que son relativamente consensuales en la academia y que, de hecho, hacían parte de la propuesta de la Misión Electoral Especial. Al oponerse a los intereses de los caciques regionales montados sobre el clientelismo, podría ganarse el aplauso de la opinión pública, pero también podría hacer que estas propuestas naufraguen en el Congreso como ocurrió en el pasado.
En conclusión, la primera semana del nuevo gobierno deja más incertidumbre de la que existían antes de su posesión. Si la ambigüedad es calculada, el presidente está hilando demasiado fino como para que las cosas le salgan bien. Si no lo es, será vital que marque un rumbo claro y propio en las próximas semanas para que logre mantener el control de la agenda política.
Yann Basset: Doctor en ciencia política de la Universidad de Paris III, profesor de la Universidad del Rosario y director del Observatorio de la Representación Política (ORP).
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