Por Jesús Botero García.
Dos señales opuestas
Los resultados de las últimas semanas muestran un panorama complejo y variable, donde resulta difícil predecir el curso que mantendrá la economía en el segundo semestre del año y en 2024.
El Indicador de Seguimiento a la Economía (ISE) mostró en abril —por primera vez en dos años— un resultado negativo del 0,8 %. Este resultado, más la caída de la Formación Bruta de Capital —ver cuadro 1—, anticipa un mayor deterioro del crecimiento, incluso superior al que muestra la Encuesta Trimestral de Expectativas del Banco de la República en las versiones de enero y abril de 2023.
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Sin embargo, los datos de empleo de mayo y las expectativas de empresarios y consumidores en el informe de Fedesarrollo parecen apuntar a un mejor resultado.
La incertidumbre grande proviene de otras fuentes. Por una parte, del contexto externo, que ha evolucionado sin embargo favorablemente en las últimas semanas, y del contexto político interno, que es cada vez más complejo.
La tasa de desempleo fue levemente menor que la observada en el mismo mes de 2022, de 10,6 % a 10,5 %, como lo ilustra la gráfica 1. Incluso fue mejor que la observada en 2019, antes de la pandemia.
Y el índice de Confianza de Comercial (ICCO) mejoró en mayo 10,4 puntos porcentuales (pps), el de Confianza Industrial (ICI) 1,8 y la Confianza del Consumidor (ICC) 6 pps respecto del mes anterior.
De interés: Concertación
Cuadro 1
| CRECIMIENTO DEL PIB. 2022-2023-I | ||
| Concepto | 2022pr | 2023pr |
| Total | Trim. I | |
| Demanda interna | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| Gasto de consumo final | 7.9 | 2.6 |
| Gasto de consumo final individual de los hogares; gasto de consumo final ISFLH | 9.5 | 2.9 |
| Gasto de consumo final del gobierno general | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Formación bruta de capital | 16.8 | -10.3 |
| Formación bruta de capital fijo | 11.4 | -1.0 |
| Vivienda | 4.5 | 12.0 |
| Otros edificios y estructuras | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Maquinaria y equipo | 24.5 | -8.0 |
| Recursos biológicos cultivados | -6.8 | 1.7 |
| Productos de propiedad intelectual | 12.4 | 0.8 |
| Exportaciones | 14.8 | 5.1 |
| Importaciones | 22.3 | -7.5 |
| Producto Interno Bruto | 7.3 | 3.0 |
| Fuente: DANE. Cuentas Nacionales. |
Así las cosas, el crecimiento estará probablemente entre el 1,3 % que prevé el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo y el 1,8 % que anuncia el Marco Fiscal de Mediano Plazo, en la versión recientemente presentada por el Ministerio. Una versión, por cierto, que incorpora una proyección relativamente pesimista para 2024, de 1,5 %, si se compara con la previsión del Plan de Desarrollo de 2,8 %.
La incertidumbre grande proviene de otras fuentes. Por una parte, del contexto externo, que ha evolucionado sin embargo favorablemente en las últimas semanas, y del contexto político interno, que es cada vez más complejo. Veamos estos factores.
Lea en Razón Pública: Cien años de la política monetaria en Colombia
El contexto global
Aunque no se descartan los riesgos de recesión global, el panorama mundial no ha tendido a agravarse, aún a pesar del curso impredecible de la guerra en Ucrania y del desacople estratégico de las economías de Estados Unidos y de China.
En cuanto a la guerra, la sorprendente rebelión del grupo Wagner fue rápidamente controlada por el gobierno, mostrando que, a pesar de una inocultable debilidad, Putin sigue manteniendo las riendas del poder. Son pues remotas las posibilidades de un desenlace rápido de la guerra.
Por otra parte, los tímidos intentos de acercamiento entre China y Estados Unidos muestran la seriedad de los desacuerdos. Es claro que China atraviesa una situación compleja, debido a la debilidad de su sector de construcción, el mal desempeño del sector exportador y la insuficiente tracción del mercado interno para compensar la desaceleración.
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Estados Unidos, por su parte, intenta conciliar sus intereses estratégicos de largo plazo con las restricciones que le impone la política económica en el corto plazo.
Lo que parece quedar patente de los acercamientos y visitas es que ambas potencias tienen clara la magnitud de su desacuerdo, y que han decidido emprender su propio camino de consolidación estratégica. La independencia de las potencias llevará al mundo, seguramente, a una polarización mucho más radical, en la que cada país tendrá su propia órbita estratégica, su propio control financiero y clarísimas prioridades económicas.
El entorno económico de corto plazo para los demás países no será particularmente dinámico, pero tampoco se exacerbarán riesgos para los países emergentes.
De interés: Pensionados pierden el 19%
La política monetaria de Estados Unidos
Lo más relevante en el contexto internacional es la evolución de la política monetaria en Estados Unidos, en medio una percepción general a la baja de riesgos de recesión, y signos claros de reducción de las presiones inflacionarias.
En la reunión de junio 13 y 14, el Comité de Mercado Abierto de la Reserva Federal (FOMC, por sus siglas en inglés) mantuvo la tasa de interés, aunque señalando que se mantendrá “preparado para ajustar la orientación de la política monetaria si surgen riesgos que impidan alcanzar las metas de reducción de la inflación”.
Lo más notable es que las proyecciones de los miembros del comité respecto del crecimiento del PIB se elevaron sustancialmente respecto de los niveles del marzo pasado. La mediana de la proyección pasó de 0,4 % a 1 %, mejorando el pronóstico de desempleo que pasó de 4,5 % a 4,1 %, y revisando la tasa de inflación proyectada que pasó del 3,3 % al 3,2 %.
Leer: $31.3 billones para regalías
Ese mismo cambio de percepción explica la evolución del dólar en los mercados mundiales: el índice DXY —que mide la fortaleza frente a un grupo relevante de monedas mundiales— se ha ido ajustando a la baja. Pasó de niveles de cierre de 114,11 en septiembre pasado, en que fungía como moneda refugio ante una eventual recesión global, a 102,92 en junio 30, en un ambiente de riesgo más distendido, como lo ilustra la gráfica 2. La grafica representa una pérdida de valor equivalente al 9,8 %, que ha contribuido a la revaluación del peso de manera importante.
Tasa de cambio, flujos de capital y contexto político
En el mismo período de tiempo considerado en el análisis del índice DXY, el peso se ha revaluado 6,8 %, indicando que, en buena medida, el valor global del dólar en los mercados mundiales ha incidido de manera importante en la tasa de cambio del país.
Sin embargo, es cierto que, a lo largo del período considerado, la tasa de cambio colombiana ha fluctuado considerablemente. De hecho, llegó a niveles de 5061,21, en noviembre de 2022 y, con relación a esa tasa, la apreciación ha sido superior al 17 %.
Si el gobierno emprende de nuevo, como lo hizo en los primeros meses de su gestión, la búsqueda de consensos efectivos en los sistemas de aseguramiento y protección social, ello será decisivo para el buen funcionamiento de la economía.
Una eventual explicación podría ser ésta: entre la fecha de mayor fortalecimiento del índice DXY y el final del primer semestre del presente año, se presentaron grandes fluctuaciones de la tasa de cambio asociadas con la incertidumbre política, el déficit considerable de balanza de pagos de finales del año anterior y al elevado ritmo de crecimiento de las importaciones con el que terminó el 2022.
Pero el déficit se ha ajustado, las importaciones están ya decreciendo y, especialmente, los mercados financieros internacionales parecen haber llegado a una percepción relativamente tranquila del riesgo político en el país.
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En este sentido, lo que parece concluirse de los últimos eventos políticos es una mayor resiliencia del sistema institucional colombiano. Tanto el Senado y los partidos políticos, como las cortes, parecen estar actuando con cierta independencia. Ello hace necesaria la búsqueda de consensos para adoptar los cambios que, sin duda, debe ejecutar el “gobierno del cambio”.
La conclusión que se sigue de lo anterior es clara: si el gobierno emprende de nuevo, como lo hizo en los primeros meses de su gestión, la búsqueda de consensos efectivos en los sistemas de aseguramiento y protección social, ello será decisivo para el buen funcionamiento de la economía.
Además, podrá propiciar el surgimiento de fórmulas efectivas que, sin sacrificar los logros alcanzados, y sin poner en riesgo la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas, mejorarán la calidad de vida de la población.
De esta manera tendremos el camino despejado para emprender en un entorno internacional propicio y con un espacio de acción adecuado en los mercados financieros, las acciones esenciales que eleven el crecimiento y el bienestar.
De interés: Cambios en la reforma tributaria
Las verdaderas tareas que tenemos en el futuro son la transformación productiva y la transición energética consistente y responsable, que nos permitirán crecer a tasas superiores al 3,2 %, que el Marco Financiero de Mediano Plazo asume como tasa de crecimiento de largo plazo y aplica al período 2026-2034.
El camino de la polarización extrema, en cambio, exacerbará los riesgos políticos, se debilitará la posición del país en los mercados financieros y se dificultará el manejo macroeconómico, haciendo imposible la aplicación de una política social efectiva y consistente.
Este artículo fue posible gracias a la colaboración de nuestros lectores. Te invitamos a apoyar nuestra labor a través de una donación. #YoapoyoaRazónPública
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Aviator краш игра онлайн предлагает увлекательную и захватывающую игровую атмосферу, где вы становитесь настоящим авиатором и сражаетесь с самыми опасными искусственными интеллектами.
В этой игре вы должны показать свое мастерство и смекалку, чтобы преодолеть сложности многочисленных локаций и уровней. Вам предстоит собирать бонусы, уклоняться от препятствий и сражаться с врагами, используя свои навыки пилотирования и стрельбы.
Каждый уровень игры Aviator краш имеет свою уникальную атмосферу и задачи. Будьте готовы к неожиданностям, так как вас ждут захватывающие повороты сюжета и сложные испытания. Найдите все пути к победе и станьте настоящим героем авиатором!
Авиатор игра является прекрасным способом провести время и испытать настоящий адреналиновый разряд. Готовы ли вы стать лучшим авиатором? Не упустите свой шанс и начните играть в Aviator краш прямо сейчас!
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Aviator игра предлагает увлекательное и захватывающее разнообразие врагов и уровней, которые не оставят равнодушными даже самых требовательных геймеров.
Враги в Aviator краш игре онлайн представлены в самых разных формах и размерах. Здесь вы встретите группы из маленьких и быстрых врагов, а также огромных боссов с мощным вооружением. Разнообразие врагов позволяет игрокам использовать разные тактики и стратегии для победы.
Кроме того, Aviator игра предлагает разнообразие уровней сложности. Выберите легкий уровень, чтобы насладиться игровым процессом, или вызовите себе настоящий вызов, выбрав экспертный уровень. Независимо от выбранного уровня сложности, вы получите максимум удовольствия от игры и окунетесь в захватывающий мир авиаторов.
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