Se acaba de cumplir un año del triunfo de Gustavo Petro y Francia Márquez en la segunda vuelta electoral de junio de 2022 En qué estamos tvnoticiascol www.tvnoticias.com.co

¿En qué estamos?

Actualidad Política / Judicial

Por Andrés Dávila.

Balance temprano

Se acaba de cumplir un año del triunfo de Gustavo Petro y Francia Márquez en la segunda vuelta electoral de junio de 2022.

Por eso es oportuno intentar algunos ejercicios de balance, aunque todavía parezca temprano para ello, dado el carácter profundamente reformista de su propuesta y la incertidumbre que aún gravita sobre el panorama nacional.

Por primera vez en 200 años, el sistema político se ha movido levemente de la centroderecha hacia el centro. Este ejercicio de balance enfrenta las opiniones que, incluso desde hace más de un año, destaparon sus cartas entre el petrismo y el antipetrismo rampantes.

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Cabe indicar que el primer gobierno reconocidamente de izquierda en el país ha enfrentado varios retos de gran magnitud y ha intentado estrategias para asegurar gobernabilidad y gestionar las reformas sociales que considera irrenunciables.

Gracias a estas estrategias consiguió inicialmente condiciones de gobernabilidad importantes, las cuales sirvieron para aprobar la reforma tributaria y para echar a andar una agenda reformista de largo alcance.

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Gobernabilidad, líneas rojas y economía

Después de la salida de tres ministros, en marzo se configuró una situación crítica: se pateó el tablero, se rompió la coalición de gobierno y se encareció la negociación de los apoyos en el Congreso.

Por primera vez en 200 años, el sistema político se ha movido levemente de la centroderecha hacia el centro.

Pero desde la perspectiva del círculo petrista, se reafirmaron las líneas rojas innegociables. Paradójicamente, esto implicó la salida de ministros que tranquilizaban a muchos sectores, como el de Hacienda y la de Agricultura, pero también la de Salud (supuesta adalid de la reforma correspondiente en perspectiva petrista).

El balance de la gestión gubernamental es positivo si se piensa en lo aprobado en el Congreso y en lo conseguido, no sin resquemores, dudas, improvisaciones y desconfianzas en la Paz Total.

De interés: Objetivo concreto

Por otra parte, las llamadas reformas sociales presentan un panorama de luces y sombras, como también ocurre con el ritmo y avance de la gestión, pues hay muchas señales de parálisis administrativa.

Aun así, la economía presenta señales favorables, como indica que el aumento de la inflación se haya detenido, las cifras de desempleo hayan caído y el peso se haya revaluado frente al dólar. Aunque claro, esto no se debe al gobierno ni a Petro, sino al entorno internacional…

¿Para dónde vamos?

Hoy no sabemos en qué van a terminar las propuestas gubernamentales y cuál va a ser el alcance del prurito reformista.

El presidente, con una favorabilidad que ha decaído pero que parece sostenerse, insiste en un inoficioso llamado a la calle, producto de una especie de deja vu izquierdista.

Ante la pregunta de ¿para dónde vamos?, las respuestas dependen del petrista o el antipetrista ambiente y no es fácil filtrar tanto ruido para leer la situación. Pero se pueden fijar algunas claves.

A Petro hay que leerlo en tres niveles distintos: el de sus tweets, el de sus discursos en distintos foros y ante variadas audiencias, y el de su acción como presidente que, hasta el momento, ha sido fundamentalmente institucional y que, claramente, se diferencia de lo sucedido a lo largo del gobierno de Iván Duque.

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Escándalos

Lo planteado en este balance sin balance muestra, ante todo, un panorama complejo, convulso per se. Pero, por si algo faltara, a este proceso y panorama se han sumado escándalos que apuntan a corrupción, clientelismo, excesos en el ejercicio del poder y otras consideraciones que ameritan algunas reflexiones.

También se han presentado escándalos y situaciones propiciadas por actuaciones de personas cercanas al presidente Petro, rápida y convenientemente convertidas en juicios morales, políticos e ideológicos en redes sociales y medios de comunicación, algunos de ellos particularmente interesados.

Escándalos y situaciones que, sería bueno recordar, han estado presentes en todos los gobiernos, aunque posiblemente con dimensiones y alcances que habría que ponderar.

De interés: Presentando excusas

El primer escándalo, destapado en febrero, fue el del hermano y el hijo de Gustavo Petro. Rápidamente, y aun con el costo familiar que ello implicara, el presidente puso las denuncias en manos de la Fiscalía y tales procesos quedaron, por tanto, bajo la responsabilidad de la institución correspondiente.

Como es obvio, esto tuvo un costo político para el presidente y significó una primera ruptura concreta con la opinión, más allá de los rumores sobre excesos e intervenciones de la primera dama y las consabidas críticas racistas y clasistas de que ha sido objeto, con prisa pero sin pausa, la vicepresidenta Francia Márquez.

También surgieron allí los primeros juicios morales sobre Gustavo Petro como el padre ausente de Nicolás Petro, diputado del Atlántico, a causa de la clandestinidad.

Leer: Dignificar el trabajo

El segundo escándalo correspondió a la aplicación irregular de medidas como la prueba del polígrafo a una niñera que trabajaba para la entonces secretaria privada del presidente, Laura Sarabia. Este hecho adquirió dimensiones mayores por lo sucedido con el hoy exembajador en Venezuela, Armando Benedetti, que incluyó:

  • Una disputa entre estos exfuncionarios.
  • Unas entrevistas de Benedetti y de la niñera ante la directora (¿periodista?) de Semana, Vicky Dávila.
  • Chuzadas de celulares de la niñera y otras empleadas de Laura Sarabia.
  • Vuelos chárter y viajes de niñeras con embajadores.
  • Las declaraciones, anónimas o de informantes protegidos como fuente (o de espíritus del más allá), que implicaban al presidente como dueño de maletas llenas de dinero.
  • El suicidio, corroborado finalmente por Medicina Legal, del coronel Dávila.
  • La reunión del presidente con los dos funcionarios para pedirles su renuncia.
  • El allanamiento de la Casa de Nariño y otras dependencias presidenciales por la Fiscalía.
  • Las citaciones de varios implicados a lo largo de estas semanas.
  • Las reuniones, supuestas o reales, entre el presidente Petro y Armando Benedetti.

Cierro la enumeración, pero entre el momento de escribir esto y el momento de su publicación pueden surgir algunos más, atados a las ediciones dominicales, que habría que agregar pero que no modifican de fondo la situación.

Dos hipótesis

Sobre lo anterior, sugiero dos interpretaciones hechas al gusto de petristas y antipetristas.

Una primera hipótesis es para los petristas, quienes consideran que detrás de tantas denuncias y escándalos hay intereses muy fuertes que incluso cabrían en la categoría de “golpe blando” y que suman a medios y a gremios y empresarios, y a opositores explícitos e implícitos: el presidente no sabía y cuando supo, solicitó las renuncias.

Los procedimientos, en apariencia excesivos e irregulares contra la niñera y otras empleadas, correspondieron a arbitrariedades propias de la inexperiencia y juventud de alguien que de un momento a otro tiene el poder de manejar la agenda del presidente. Y como el presidente no se caracteriza por la puntualidad y el cumplimiento, la sensación y realidad de poder aumenta para quien cumple tal función.

De interés: Mafia y Fiscalía

Esto se enlazaría con el suicidio del coronel Dávila en la perspectiva de un funcionario que, por cumplir una orden proveniente de una funcionaria de presidencia, accedió a que se incurriera en una irregularidad. Ante la presión de lo que se venía, tomó tan lamentable decisión.

Evidentemente se necesita una especie de ingenuidad aprendida para conformarse con estas versiones, pero paradójicamente unas consultas informales con personas que han pasado por la Presidencia en distintos cargos apuntan a darle algún grado de credibilidad a lo planteado. Sin embargo, no parece suficiente.

Foto: Facebook: Presidencia de la República – En una primera hipótesis se afirma que los comportamientos excesivos contra Marelbys Meza y otras empleadas corresponden a la inexperiencia y juventud de Laura Sarabia, a lo que se suma la sensación de poder manejar la agenda del presidente.

Posiblemente en manos de acuerdos en la élite del poder colombiano que se sigue rigiendo por la máxima de “hagámonos pasito”.

La segunda hipótesis, de gusto de los antipetristas, se divide en tres variantes:

  1. La que señala al presidente como responsable máximo de todo lo sucedido, incluida la muerte del coronel Dávila.
  2. La que se decanta por la responsabilidad de Armando Benedetti como resultado de su malestar por el trato que le dieron tanto Laura Sarabia como el presidente Petro. En esta entran en juego los audios que implicarían al presidente hasta en temas de consumo de sustancias, como en la velada amenaza de dar a conocer cómo se financió la campaña presidencial. Aquí, las consultas informales lo único que resaltan es que de antemano Gustavo Petro debía saber lo que implicaba darle juego y relevancia a Benedetti, así ayudara a conseguir votos y recursos para una campaña que fue muy competida.
  1. La otra variante concluye que el anuncio del cambio fue puro discurso y que estamos inmersos en la misma maraña clientelar y corrupta de siempre. Obviamente, para los antipetristas extremos, por lo sucedido solo cabe pedir la renuncia o hacer realidad el golpe.

Aislado del ruido, por ahora cabe concluir que los hechos están en manos de la Fiscalía y la Procuraduría. Posiblemente en manos de acuerdos en la élite del poder colombiano que se sigue rigiendo por la máxima de “hagámonos pasito”. Paradójicamente, pese a marchas, discursos y escándalos en redes y medios, las instituciones tienen la palabra. Y ahí vamos.

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