La Contraloría General de la República realizó un detenido análisis de los estados financieros de REFICAR al cierre del año 2017 y encontró que la empresa realizó un ajuste contable de reversión de deterioro, que si bien es permitido por las normas internacionales de contabilidad (aplicables para Colombia), incide en un resultado operacional positivo de $48.094 millones, cuando la realidad podría ser diferente.
Esta reversión ocurre luego de que en las vigencias 2014 a 2016, la refinería acumulara una pérdida por deterioro por valor de USD 1.570 millones, años en los cuales la refinería se devaluó sin siquiera haberse puesto en marcha, diferente a lo ocurrido en la vigencia 2017, donde presentó una valoración por sus presuntos resultados futuros.
Si REFICAR no hubiera realizado dicho ajuste, tendría un resultado mejor que en la vigencia 2016, en la que obtuvo una pérdida de $2.4 billones, pero en todo caso sería negativo llegando a una pérdida de $1.4 billones.
El cálculo del deterioro es una estimación contable que se utiliza para ajustar el valor en libros de los activos de una compañía a su importe recuperable. En el caso de REFICAR, la empresa calculó el deterioro mediante la metodología de flujos de caja libre descontados.
Al comparar este valor con el costo en libros de la refinería al cierre de 2017, los cálculos dan como resultado una diferencia de $1.5 billones, cifra que al registrarse en estados financieros aumenta el valor de la refinería y en consecuencia sus ingresos y utilidad.
Este incremento de valor proviene de estimaciones realizadas por REFICAR en las cuales se espera que la refinería genere en un futuro mejores ingresos a menores costos y poco tiene que ver con la situación actual de la misma. Esto se corrobora con la perdida bruta de $52.838 millones revelada en los estados financieros al cierre de 2017.
Resultados sin ajuste
Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior, un equipo especializado de la Contraloría General de la República elaboró un escenario sin ajustes por deterioro, manteniendo iguales las demás variables, obteniendo los siguientes resultados:
Ver cuadro, columna de la derecha: REFICAR sin deterioro CGR 2017, y comparar con los cifras de la izquierda que dio la empresa para los ejercicios contables de las vigencias 2016 y 2017.
Como se aprecia en el cuadro, al retirar la reversión del deterioro, el resultado operacional de 2017 sería una pérdida de $784.569 millones y una pérdida neta de $1.4 billones. Este resultado presenta una mejoría con respecto al 2016, pero sigue siendo negativo y no cumple con las expectativas que se tenían para la refinería.
¿RENTABLE?
Dejando atrás el ajuste de reversión del deterioro, en el estado de resultados se aprecia que la refinería continúa dando pérdidas. Para la vigencia 2017 esta ascendió a $52.838 millones de pesos, debido a que el costo de ventas sigue siendo mayor que los ingresos operacionales.
En otras palabras, a REFICAR le sale más caro producir que lo que obtiene por sus ventas.
UTILIDAD/ PÉRDIDA BRUTA 2016-2017
Es importante tener en cuenta que, según la administración de REFICAR, la refinería se encuentra cumpliendo con los objetivos de producción y las ventas son positivas y satisfactorias; sin embargo hay que ver que los costos de estas ventas son superiores, tanto que el resultado final es negativo, haciendo que la Contraloría se cuestione sobre cuáles son los niveles de producción necesarios para obtener resultados positivos y generar valor y si estos niveles son coherentes con la capacidad máxima de la refinería.
LA CARGA QUE SE ECHÓ ENCIMA ECOPETROL
Para construir la refinería, REFICAR adquirió deudas con bancos internacionales, respaldadas por Ecopetrol.
Dado que los ingresos de la refinería no cumplían con lo esperado y la disponibilidad de efectivo no alcanzaba a cubrir el servicio de la deuda, en varias ocasiones Ecopetrol se vio en la necesidad de capitalizar a REFICAR para que pudiera cumplir los compromisos con la banca internacional.
Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior y que en el futuro y hasta el 2021, de acuerdo a las estimaciones de REFICAR, tendría un déficit para el pago de la deuda de aproximadamente USD 1.100 millones, Ecopetrol decidió asumir la deuda de REFICAR, que tenía un saldo en diciembre de 2017 de USD 2.596 millones, con el propósito de evitar futuras capitalizaciones.
Esto quiere decir que la carga financiera de capital e intereses de la deuda fue asumida por Ecopetrol a partir de diciembre 2017.
El cambio de responsable de la deuda beneficia a REFICAR, ya que Ecopetrol no solo asumió la deuda, sino que REFICAR emitió acciones a Ecopetrol como contraprestación. En consecuencia, el pasivo desapareció del balance de REFICAR y se trasladó a su patrimonio.
Adicionalmente ya no existe ningún tipo de compromiso que obligue a REFICAR a garantizar un mínimo de producción y niveles de estabilidad, como lo tenía con la banca internacional, y también libera su cupo de endeudamiento que, de acuerdo a la misma información de la entidad, reflejaba al cierre de 2016 un 182% de apalancamiento, contraviniendo lo pactado en las condiciones crediticias.
Fuente: Estados Financieros de Reficar 2017
En los próximos años REFICAR no tendrá gastos financieros asociados a la deuda adquirida para financiar el proyecto, lo que sin duda mejorará la situación financiera de la compañía, incrementando la utilidad, que estará asociada en gran medida al no registro de esta carga financiera y no necesariamente a los resultados operacionales de la Refinería. Adicionalmente el flujo de caja mejorará con la liberación de esta obligación.
En este punto, la Contraloría se pregunta: ¿Cuál empresa no sería rentable si le quitan sus costos de financiación?, ¿Dónde queda la proyección financiera de la refinería que contemplaba estos costos y aun así era rentable? Y ¿Cuál es el impacto de asumir esta deuda sobre los flujos de caja descontados con los que se calculó la reversión de deterioro?
VIABILIDAD EN ENTREDICHO
Al final de cuentas, Ecopetrol asume la deuda de REFICAR y de este modo lanza un salvavidas que mejora notablemente sus resultados actuales y futuros. Sin embargo, esto deja en entredicho los verdaderos resultados de la viabilidad del proyecto de modernización que se vendió a los colombianos y las capacidades operativas actuales de la refinería, cerrando la puerta a un ejercicio de control directo sobre el proyecto.
En la estructuración inicial de la refinería se suponía que ésta iba a ser autosostenible y produciría utilidades para el país y no sería una carga para ECOPETROL y el país, como está pasando actualmente.
Para ECOPETROL la deuda asumida no es significativa. Dada la magnitud de sus operaciones, el impacto negativo de estos costos se camufla gracias a los resultados positivos obtenidos por la empresa más grande del país.
Ante esta situación, solo le queda a la Contraloría preguntarse: ¿Qué viene para REFICAR? ¿Hasta cuándo continuará Ecopetrol rescatándola?
En un país con tantas necesidades y endeudamiento, los modelos financieros de proyectos intensivos en capital no deberían estar cambiándose de la noche a la mañana, desperdiciando recursos en proyectos de cuestionable viabilidad y que podrían dirigirse a atender otras necesidades.
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