LA CONTIENDA DE DOS COLOSOS

Actualidad Columnistas

Por Carlos Tobar.

El mundo económico está que arde. La razón, la cada vez más virulenta confrontación entre las dos mayores potencias comerciales del momento: Estados Unidos vs. China.

Este enfrentamiento lleva ya un año largo cuando los EEUU, impusiera, en enero del 2018 aranceles a las importaciones de paneles solares y lavadoras, provenientes de todo el mundo. En marzo, extendió los aranceles a importaciones de acero y aluminio, también de cualquier procedencia.

Aunque las medidas tenían un universo amplio de países –Colombia, salió afectada con los aranceles a sus exportaciones de acero a los Estados Unidos–, afectaban particularmente a China que, respondió con la aplicación de aranceles a 120 tipos de productos, valorados en 3.000 millones de dólares, a productos importados de los EEUU, suma que compensaba los aranceles impuestos por ese país.

De ahí hasta el presente, en la medida en que avanzaban en negociaciones bilaterales, donde los EEUU, busca equilibrar la balanza comercial deficitaria con China por más de 500 mil millones de dólares, la escalada ha ido en aumento.

Hoy, cuando las negociaciones han llegado a un punto álgido el presidente Trump ha extendido la medida arancelaria del 10% al 25% –ya respondida por China– y, amenaza que de no llegar a acuerdo en los términos que exige los EEUU, los aranceles se extenderían a los más de US$500.000 millones que suma el déficit comercial entre los dos países.

Por informaciones de El País de España, “el quid de la negociación se encuentra en que Washington reclama a Pekín no solo que aumente sus compras de productos estadounidenses para equilibrar una balanza comercial muy favorable a China. También le exige medidas para garantizar la protección de la propiedad intelectual, eliminar la transferencia forzosa de tecnología y permitir el acceso a los mercados financieros chinos, entre otras cuestiones. Y para ello considera necesario que China se comprometa a cambiar sus leyes, algo que Pekín percibe como una injerencia intolerable en su soberanía.”

La situación es más compleja porque va más allá del intercambio comercial entre dos países, como quiera que involucra las cadenas globales de producción. Donde empresas multinacionales, principalmente norteamericanas, producen desde China y muchos otros países con bajos salarios y bajos impuestos, pero venden en el mercado estadounidense, y, son finalmente las causantes de los déficits comerciales y de trabajo.

Mientras tanto, países pequeños y en desarrollo como el nuestro sufre los embates de la turbulencia financiera y comercial, creada por la confrontación entre estos dos colosos que amenaza con reconfigurar el mapa económico y político mundial

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